Opinion · Academic · Non-fiction
Writing
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New York Times
America, We Have a Math Problem.
March 1, 2026
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LA Review of Books
The Correlation Between Statistics and Eugenics.
Legacies of Eugenics series · July 18, 2024
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New York Times
I’m a Parent and a Statistician. There’s a Smarter Way to Think About the Under-5 Vaccine.
March 1, 2022
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Columbia University Press
Bernoulli’s Fallacy: Statistical Illogic and the Crisis of Modern Science.
August 2021
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Boston Globe Ideas
Vaccinated people are getting sick — but some counterintuitive math puts it in context.
July 29, 2021
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Nautilus
How Eugenics Shaped Statistics.
Issue 92, October 2020 (cover story)
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Curio
How Eugenics Shaped Statistics (audio version).
November 2020
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Boston Globe Ideas
Democrats, learn to stop worrying and love the brinkmanship.
October 9, 2020
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Boston Globe Ideas
When it comes to asteroids and other calamities, time might be on our side.
September 24, 2020
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Boston Globe Ideas
The numbers of prison reform depend on how you count.
August 28, 2020
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Institute of Art and Ideas
August 25, 2020
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Boston Globe Ideas
What does a negative coronavirus test really reveal?
July 22, 2020
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Boston Globe Ideas
The statistical paradox of police killings.
June 11, 2020
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Boston Globe Ideas
There isn’t one true coronavirus death rate.
May 28, 2020
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Boston Globe Ideas
Coronavirus caveat: Beware easy predictions.
May 8, 2020
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Nautilus
To Beat COVID-19, Think Like a Fighter Pilot.
March 19, 2020
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Nautilus
How to Predict Extreme Weather.
November 21, 2019
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Nautilus
The Flawed Reasoning Behind the Replication Crisis.
August 1, 2019
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Quantitative Finance
Election predictions are arbitrage-free: response to Taleb.
July 25, 2019
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Nautilus
Nassim Taleb’s Case Against Nate Silver Is Bad Math.
April 8, 2019
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Nautilus
How to Improve Political Forecasts.
March 21, 2019
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International Journal of Approximate Reasoning
January 2017
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Pacific Standard
October 7, 2015
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Pacific Standard
The Singularity Could Destroy Us All.
September 3, 2014